Jaime's profileO-Z BLOG BOLIVIA ©PhotosBlogLists Tools Help

Blog


    27/12/2005

    “THE END OF BOLIVIA?” - “¿EL FIN DE BOLIVIA?”

    The war of words against Bolivia begins: The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)’s Michael Radu accuses the new government of Bolivia of presiding over a “racist and fascist movement”, and defends fellow alumni of the Hoover Institution Jorge Quiroga and former president Sánchez de Lozada as the only democratic alternatives in Bolivia. Furthermore, Radu proposes total isolation of Bolivia under Morales, and says: "If this leads to the end of Bolivia as we know it, so be it."

     

    Empieza la guerra internacional de palabras contra Bolivia: Michael Radu del Instituto para la Investigación de la Política Externa (FPRI en inglés) acusa al nuevo gobierno de Bolivia de 'racista y fascista', y defiende a su ex compañero del Instituto Hoover Jorge Quiroga y al ex-presidente Sánchez de Lozada como las únicas alternativas democráticas en Bolivia. Además, Radu propone un aislamiento total de la Bolivia de Evo Morales y dice:"Si esto significa el fin de Bolivia, que lo sea.”

     

    A continuación la refutación en inglés al artículo de Radu: “¿El fin de Bolivia?”

     

    In light of the more realistic and pragmatic advice given to the U.S. by Latin America analysts, experts and even the traditional press outlets- which seems to be taken hold at  the State Department level, especially after the call to dialogue by the president-elect of Bolivia Evo Morales Ayma- it should not worry Bolivians that they are indirectly blamed, by Michael Radu, Carlos Alberto Montaner, and others for the “mistake” of having overwhelmingly elected a “majority rule” candidate with clean hands and the main mission of fighting poverty. The Organization of the American States, regional organizations, the World Bank, the European Union and a growing number o nations have offered Morales “all the help we can muster”, as the OAS’s Secretary General Insulza has declared. Not least, the International Monetary Fund has proceeded to include Bolivia in its first wave of debt relief under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative.

     

    Michael Radu of the Foreign Policy Reseach Institute (FPRI), the author of the worrisome article “The End of Bolivia?” - which sounds similar to another article he wrote: “Does Africa Exist?” - seems to want to be left alone in the world with his simplistic, impractical and narrow-minded focus. Dr. Radu has written about every region of the world for more than 20 years in rather broad terms, but he is not a Bolivia scholar. His generalizations of Bolivia, although not as harsh, are similar to the ones he uses against European leftists. The truth is that Dr. Radu’s opinion should not weigh heavy on US policy towards Bolivia. He has before predicted the fall of the left in Europe, called into question the existence of African unity; called leaders around the world ‘racists’ and ‘fascists’ as long as they are of the leftist persuasion. This is not sound advice to academia or to business. Finally, in the case of Bolivia, he is making a big mistake.

     

    Dr. Radu seems least clued-up when he endorses, as the only democratic options in Bolivia, his fellow alumni at the Hoover Institution, Jorge Quiroga, and former president Sanchez de Lozada, who is wanted by the Bolivian justice for genocide, and soon for economic crimes, and who has ruled in a coalition with known narco-politicians that were banned from even entering the U.S. Dr. Radu’s erroneous simplifications, such as the characterization of the demographic distribution of progressive-eastern-whites vis á vis radical-western-Indians in Bolivia, sounds more like an analysis of pre-Civil War America pamphleteers. Some facts he uses as argument, such as the out-of-context statement, flown around the world by the media, which imputes the president-elect of Bolivia of going around threatening to be the US’s “worst nightmare” could not be further from the truth: since the election president-elect Morales has repeatedly called for dialogue and understanding with the U.S.. Dr. Radu will not “educate the educators” nor will he help the media or business investors, as is the FPRI’s mission, by ignoring the present historical reality of Bolivia in its larger Latin American context. Let me elaborate on this latter topic.

     

    The fact that South American politics is challenging the geopolitical hegemony of the Western Hemisphere in its present form comes more from the realization by the larger economies in the region, such as Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela, that they can evolve into stronger economies with social progress, something that has not been addressed by the old oligarchic model of supply-side illusions and political isolation. The fact that Brazil’s Lula da Silva turned out to be “not as bad” as predicted by analysts such as Mr. Radu, is because the social rhetoric by Venezuela, and even Argentina and Uruguay, has  polarized the debate between the US and Latin America. The thesis that “you are either with us or you are against us” can only ingratiate the European and Chinese desires of planned partnerships with Latin America, partly eliminating the American participation. What Dr. Radu does not realize is that by insulting Bolivian voters, he is suggesting, in the larger context of South America, that the U.S. eliminates itself as a participant in the greater dialogue taken place in the hemisphere. U.S. businesses are ill-served by any advice that is one-sided, simplistic and stereotypical with regards to US-Latin American relations. U.S. corporate investments in Bolivia, although lower than “remesas” sent back by Bolivians from around the world, are large enough to warrant a more profound analysis of the new political reality in Bolivia- at least in real and pragmatic terms. The claim of a threat to Bolivia’s wellbeing by the ruling of the indigenous majority (labeled a ‘fascist-racist movement’ by Dr. Radu), as well as the ridiculous assertion of the threat of war with Chile (which by the way also has a leftist government) are all simplifications of reality that can only result from reincarnated fear and ignorance, not from good business acumen. The fact is that the new government of Bolivia represents, foremost, a break with the past in that it recognizes majority rule and an end to racism and social stagnation. The economic inclusion, social uplift and political participation of the majority Indian population can only improve internal and, eventually external, market conditions geared towards increased fair trade and a healthy and more levelheaded bilateral relation between Bolivia and the U.S. [ARRIBA]

    Jaime Otero-Zuazo

    http://www.lastinfoo.com/evo-morales-2.phtml

    http://bolivia.indymedia.org/es/2005/12/25046.shtml

    Michael Radu - “The End of Bolivia?”

    Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)

    Comments (8)

    Please wait...
    Sorry, the comment you entered is too long. Please shorten it.
    You didn't enter anything. Please try again.
    Sorry, we can't add your comment right now. Please try again later.
    To add a comment, you need permission from your parent. Ask for permission
    Your parent has turned off comments.
    Sorry, we can't delete your comment right now. Please try again later.
    You've exceeded the maximum number of comments that can be left in one day. Please try again in 24 hours.
    Your account has had the ability to leave comments disabled because our systems indicate that you may be spamming other users. If you believe that your account has been disabled in error please contact Windows Live support.
    Complete the security check below to finish leaving your comment.
    The characters you type in the security check must match the characters in the picture or audio.
    Jaime has turned off comments on this page.
    Picture of Anonymous
    SUPERKOLLA wrote:
    BOLIVIA CON EVO , SE LIBRARA DE EXPLOTADORES,
    CORRUPTOS VENDE PATRIAS, PRO-YANQUIS

    BOLIVIA CON EVO SE LIBRARA DE EXPLOTADORES, CORRUPTOS VENDEPATRIAS, PRO-YANQUIS Y PRO-CHILENOS, Y POR ESO GENTE COMO ESE DEL ARTICULO, ESTAN DE MIEDO; PORQUE DE AHORA EN ADELANTE A ESE Y A TODOS LOS QUE PIENSEN COMO EL EVO LES METERA HUEVO...Y LOS MANDARA DONDE SUS PATRONES EL GOÑI Y COMPAÑIA...
    29 Dec.
    Picture of Anonymous
    decadas wrote:
    pobre Bolivia

    Da pena que un pais con tantos recursos , sea hoy el pais mas atrasado de Sudamerica debido a la incapacidad de sus dirigentes , de todos los colores, y la division racista que es evidente ,todo parece indicar que Bolivia desaparecera.
    28 Dec.
    Picture of Anonymous
    Constantino Escobar Alco wrote:
    El neofascismo no pasará

    Los pueblo de Bolivia se encargaron de hacerle morden el polvo de la derrota a los xenofobos y vendepatrias. Tuto Quiroga, al igula que su congenere politico-ideologico Sanchez de Lozada, llora su derrota. Sin embargo, continuan siendo los enemigos de los intereses nacionales, de los pobres del campo y de las ciudades; y siempre aliados y sirvientes incondicionales de las transnacionales y del imperio del mal.

    Los pueblos de Bolivia, ya no estan al nivel de ser manipulados y engañados, ni siquiera confundidos por el poder mediatico. Prueba de ello, en estas elecciones generales, no puedieron ni con la barbarie de la guerra sucia, Fueron derrotados historicamente.

    No queda mas que esperar que el gobierno de Evo Morales, cumpla su programa, en tanto sea asi el apoyo popular se acrrecentara; de lo contrario continuaremos bregando hasta avanzar a niveles superiores de la lucha politica avizorando objetivos muchos mas superiores. Los enemigos de la especie humana, los guerreristas, los hambreadores y xenofobos no pasaran. El pueblo es impredecible en su fuerza, tal como lo demostro en octubre rojo.
    28 Dec.
    Picture of Anonymous
    Joaquin wrote:
    Viva mi patria Bolivia

    Es obvio que los que creen que mi país desaparecerá, no tienen la más mínima idea de cómo somos los bolivianos en momentos de guerra, o los que mandan ese tipo de comentarios son gonistas, muchos bolivianos que votamos por el MAS asumiremos defensa no sólo del MAS sino de Bolivia, nuestro himno dice MORIR ANTES QUE ESCLAVOS VIVIR. Sabemos que nos espera un futuro de felicidad, tenemos una esperanza y no nos rendiremos jamás.
    28 Dec.
    Picture of Anonymous
    Jesús wrote:
    Ya quisieran

    Los países no desparecen porque sí. Quien desea esto simplemente lo hace por un análisis que no es integral a la realidad mundial. Mucho menos a la realidad nacional. Si fuera así, en las urnas habríamos tenido la tradicional ruptura del voto para diferentes candidatos. Aqui una mayoría bien diferenciada ha demostrado que quiere que Bolivia siga existiendo y aunque el Goni y todo el grupo de millonarios a quienes sirve deseen la disolución de Bolivia, no van a conseguirlo. Es más a ese vendepatria hay que traerlo de la oreja con carácter de urgencia para que sea sometido a juicio y deje de estar complotando para la destrucción de la república boliviana. Asi de sencillo. Está en manos del Evo actuar en consecuencia. No se necesita ser muy alfabetizado para tal cometido. sino un poco de sentido común y cumplir con lo prometido.
    Ahí vamos a querer ver a los escribidores de turno haciendo su campaña para que Bolivia desparezca del mapa.
    28 Dec.
    Picture of Anonymous
    Guichi wrote:
    Mas de Evo
    The Washingtonpost.com
    Morales' Triumph Has Washington Concerned
    By FIONA SMITH
    The Associated Press
    Sunday, December 25, 2005; 11:28 PM
    LA PAZ, Bolivia -- His idea of formal wear is a brown leather jacket over an open-collared shirt. He is more at home leading street protests than wrangling deals in the corridors of power. His fiery speaking style leaves no room for prepared texts.
    Evo Morales assumes Bolivia's presidency Jan. 22 as an extreme outsider to the country's politics, and as the first Indian president to rule an Andean nation that has always been governed by people of European descent.
    His triumph is causing concern in Washington because of his promises to reverse the U.S.-backed campaign to end the growing of coca leaf, which is used to make cocaine, and to nationalize Bolivia's gas and oil reserves.
    Counting Cuba's Fidel Castro among his allies, he also is a strong critic of free-market economics, and his election win was the latest in a string of leftist victories in South American nations disenchanted with ruling elites, endemic corruption and chronic poverty.
    But the maverick style and street activism that helped the 46-year-old Morales connect with the country's poor Indian majority could prove a liability once he takes office.
    "Evo Morales is an unpredictable politician," said Henry Oporto, a Bolivian political analyst. "He is a person who can say unexpected things without weighing the consequences. Unfortunately, I don't think that is going to help him in his role as president."
    While results from congressional voting have not been announced, calculations by polling companies predict Morales' supporters will have a slim majority in one house and a near tie in their other. That means he won't have the two-thirds majority needed to pass major reforms and he will have to bargain with other parties to advance his radical agenda.
    After his surprisingly easy victory in the Dec. 17 election _ his 54 percent of the vote was the most popular support for a presidential candidate since democracy was restored two decades ago _ Morales acknowledged being "a little nervous."
    As president he will be faced with easing the social and political strife of a country that has seen more than 200 coups, countercoups and street rebellions in 180 years of independence.
    Morales led Indian protests that ousted two presidents since 2003 using highway blockades and mass demonstrations. Now, thanks to the same angry groundswell, he will be on the inside, where any misstep could lead to the same kinds of street protests.
    "It's still a big question how he's going to govern. Clearly if he wants to be a successful president, he doesn't want the same fate as some of his predecessors," said Michael Shifter, a Latin American expert at Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank in Washington.
    How he will govern is anyone's guess. At this point, even whether he'll wear a tie to his inauguration remains a mystery. "We don't know," said Alex Contreras, a close Morales adviser who heads the transition commission for protocol.
    An Aymara Indian who grew up in poverty herding llamas and raising potatoes in Bolivia's arid highlands, Morales migrated as a youth to the coca-growing region of Chapare, where many poor farmers depend on small plots of the crop to provide a livelihood for their families.
    With an 11th grade education, the coca farmer emerged as an astute organizer able to harness the anger of the poor and flex their political muscle in the streets.
    Given the new president's strong electoral mandate, Bolivia's 8.5 million people are putting their hopes on his shoulders, and analysts say his opponents will be under pressure to deal with him. That also will leave him no one else to blame for failures.
    "It is precisely the magnitude of his victory that places on him a much greater responsibility because he will practically have no opposition," said Cayetano Llobet, a Bolivian political analyst.
    Morales, who promised during his campaign to be Washington's "worst nightmare," already appears to be moderating his rhetoric.
    In an interview with The Associated Press a week ago, he attributed his support to the desire of Bolivians to rebel against "the empire," referring to the U.S. government. Later in the interview, however, he said he was open to dialogue with Washington and will try "diplomacy with any country."
    On his Web site he once wrote, "Thanks to coca, we've made it through the endless suffering caused by the white man's infamous war on drugs." But in recent statements he has said that while he supports the growing of coca for traditional uses _ such as coca tea and medicinal purposes _ he opposes cocaine trafficking.
    Seeking to calm worries of some voters who didn't support him, he tapped a middle class intellectual to be his vice president, Alvaro Garcia Linera.
    Morales also says he plans to strengthen relations with state-owned foreign energy companies as he seeks to assert ownership over Bolivia's large natural gas reserves. He has assured the business community his government will not confiscate energy company assets and will respect private property rights.
    Still, Morales, who contends two decades of free-market policies have worsened life for Bolivia's poor, said Friday that his government will "change the economic model." He offered no details, but Garcia Linera said Saturday that one aspect would be a new tax on the wealthy.
    "A Bolivian political cycle has ended," said Llobet, the analyst. "Another one is beginning. Exactly what will be the characteristics of this new political cycle, it's too early to say."
    28 Dec.
    Picture of Anonymous
    Guichi wrote:
    Mas de Evo
    The Washingtonpost.com
    El temor a Evo
    Por Marcela Sanchez

    Thursday, December 22, 2005; 4:53 PM
    Aunque gritos de que "el cielo se va a caer" no se escucharon a lo largo de la Avenida Pensilvania esta semana, no hay duda de que ese pensamiento cruzó por la mente de algunos en esta capital cuando los resultados de la elección en Bolivia empezaron a llegar. En una victoria sin precedentes y sorpresivamente contundente, la mayoría de los bolivianos votaron por Evo Morales, un candidato cuyas credenciales anti-estadounidenses no tienen igual en Suramérica.
    Defensor de los cocaleros en Bolivia, cuyos cultivos han sido el blanco de un programa de erradicación financiado por Estados Unidos por más de una década, Morales se ha convertido casi en un héroe para el pueblo indígena boliviano. Líder del Movimiento al Socialismo, Morales cuenta entre sus más cercanos aliados al líder cubano Fidel Castro y al venezolano Hugo Chávez. Durante la campaña presidencial boliviana hace tres años, Washington desconfiaba tanto de Morales que lo denunció públicamente, con lo cual logró, involuntariamente, que pasara de cuarto a segundo lugar en las preferencias electorales. Al cierre de su última campaña la semana pasada Morales estaba prometiendo que se convertiría para Washington en "una pesadilla".
    Este indiscutible viraje de Suramérica hacia la izquierda asusta a algunos en Washington. Morales es el sexto líder en la región con una agenda de izquierda después de Hugo Chávez en Venezuela, Ricardo Lagos en Chile, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva en Brasil, Néstor Kirchner en Argentina y Tabaré Vázquez en Uruguay. Pero ver a Morales estrictamente bajo esa luz trivializa sus logros.
    Bolivia está plagada de inequidades políticas y económicas, con una clara línea divisoria entre la minoría blanca descendiente de españoles, aquella con el poder y la riqueza, y una mayoría indígena marginada e indigente. Gobiernos en La Paz, a menudo a instancias de Washington, han adoptado reformas económicas que pretendían ayudar a los pobres pero que terminaron empeorando su situación. Poco a poco, frecuentemente en reacción a las reformas, la población indígena empezó a ganar influencia política.
    Hasta ahora Washington ha estado decididamente indiferente ante Morales. La Secretaria de Estado Condoleezza Rice sugirió el lunes que la calidad de las relaciones bilaterales dependerá del buen comportamiento del nuevo líder en La Paz.
    Como si estuviera escuchando, Morales buscó clarificar o tal vez calmar a Washington durante una rueda de prensa el martes. Prometió controlar la producción de coca describiendo su política como una política de "cero cocaína, cero narcotráfico, pero no coca cero o cero cocaleros". Morales agregó que, en principio, está listo a trabajar con Washington en ese tema.
    Antes de la elección Morales también buscó aclarar su promesa de campaña de nacionalizar las extensas reservas de gas natural de Bolivia, las segundas más grandes de Suramérica. Morales dijo que busca el control para negociar mejores términos en los contratos bolivianos de gas y petróleo y no para expropiar a las compañías de petróleo extranjeras. Según Joseph Stiglitz, ex economista del Banco Mundial y Premio Nobel, la propuesta de Morales es perfectamente factible.
    La reacción de Brasil al triunfo de Morales ha sido, en contraste, mucho más calurosa a pesar de que Petrobras, la compañía estatal energética de Brasil con grandes inversiones en Bolivia, claramente podría perder con los contratos renegociados. Aún así, Brasil ha elogiado a Morales y su intención de mejorar la vida de su gente. "Queremos preservar nuestros intereses, claro", le dijo el consejero brasileño de asuntos internacionales Marco Aurelio García al diario O Globo esta semana, "pero lo más importante es velar por la convivencia política y el desarrollo (económico) de Bolivia".
    Tal vez la reacción de Rice es lo mejor que puede esperarse teniendo en cuenta lo que otros funcionarios estadounidenses han pronosticado acerca de Morales. En una reciente conversación un alto funcionario de Bush advirtió que Morales podría ser "Allende al cuadrado" - es decir, el doble de lo que fue la amenaza al hemisferio del líder socialista chileno a comienzos de los 70.
    Ese modo de pensar es el mismo que interpreta la elección de Morales no en términos de las circunstancias únicas bolivianas - como una evolución democrática que ha pasado el poder a las mayorías - sino como un desarrollo que debe ser contenido. Esa mentalidad se rehúsa a reconocer que el fenómeno izquierdista en Suramérica tiene mucho que ver con una frustración hacia las políticas económicas impulsadas por Washington por dos décadas -- y menos que ver con la conspiración Chávez-Castro.
    Nadie espera que las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y América Latina mejoren en forma significativa en el próximo año. La esperanza sin embargo es que las relaciones no empeoren con una continua mala lectura por parte de Washington de la evolución en Bolivia.
    28 Dec.
    Picture of Anonymous
    Execlub: wrote:
    WASHINGTON POST VE EL LADO POSITIVO EN VICTORIA DE EVO MORALES

    Aunque el presidente electo de Bolivia, Evo Morales, se describe a sí mismo como 'una pesadilla para Estados Unidos, su elección tiene un lado positivo', afirma hoy un editorial del diario The Washington Post.

    'La concurrencia de los votantes fue alta y la elección fue libre y limpia', añade el artículo. 'La aparente conquista por Morales de más de la mitad de los votos disipó las preocupaciones pre electorales acerca de otro estancamiento político'.

    Según el editorial, el resultado de la elección del 18 de diciembre en Bolivia 'representa un gran avance para la población indígena del país que ha sufrido discriminación durante siglos'.

    'Quizá lo mejor de todo es que, después de haber interferido con el gobierno boliviano durante más de tres años, a menudo mediante el uso de la fuerza, Morales tendrá la oportunidad de gobernar de acuerdo con sus consignas populistas, y será juzgado de acuerdo con sus resultados', prosigue el artículo.

    El Post sostiene que 'a corto plazo es difícil ser optimista' acerca de la gestión presidencial de Evo Morales. Pero que en el curso del 2006 se veran grandes avances en material social y en el patrimonio nacional.

    El diario describe a Morales como un indio aymará, 'seguidor del venezolano Hugo Chávez, y del cubano Fidel Castro, un ex pastor de llamas y cultivador de coca, que es bueno para organizar el bloqueo de carreteras en uno de los países más pobres del continente'.

    Por su parte, añade el editorial que 'la administración (del presidente George) Bush ha tropezado repetidas veces en Bolivia entre un intervencionismo torpe y un desapego que niega la realidad'.

    'Durante mucho tiempo, demasiado, la política de EEUU (hacia Bolivia) ha estado dominada por programas contra el tráfico de narcóticos y el dinero que proviene de esa actividad, y Morales ha cultivado eficazmente una reacción contra ese enfoque estrecho'. Son varios los programas del gobierno de los estados Unidos que han fracasado, principalmente en el desarrollo alternativo de las zonas productoras de coca.

    'Ahora EEUU tiene pocas alternativas aparte de no caer en las jugarrretas anti-estadounidenses de Morales, con la esperanza de que los vecinos de Bolivia vean que les interesa a ellos que se preserve la democracia boliviana', señala el diario.

    'Si la democracia perdura, probablemente Morales durará', agrega el editorial.
    28 Dec.